Apr 072010
 

Race 4: 6th Race Aqueduct

This race was originally scheduled for the grass, and I logically handicapped it that way; then I read that it would be transferred to the dirt because of soggy turf conditions, so I had to redo the logical analysis.

Logically I had 3 “A” contenders, but none of them had an ARV Targ CR greater than 2. I did consider betting one of them, #11 Spa City Princess at 7-1, but decided against it because of her Targ CR of 2.

So I decided again to go with the top ARV choice (Targ CR 5) #7, Judicial Leader, at a juicy 11-1, who was a “C” logical contender.

In the race, heavy favorite #8 (another logical “A” with a Targ CR of 2, but I had a negative feeling about her) led to the stretch, then stopped, finishing 5th; my horse #7, rated just behind her, swept on by, had the lead at the eighth pole – then was joined by #11, and the two of them battled furiously down to the wire, with me SCREAMING my head off for #7 – but #11 put his head in front, and won by a head!
OH, that was so EXCITING!!!!!

And all was not lost either – since both were longshots, the place price for #7 was a very nice $11.80, enabling me to hang on to 3rd place in the contest standings.

I went to bet #7 to Win – but something inside me said, bet to Win and Place.
So I did, and so cashed a nice bet, instead of being disappointed in losing a Win bet by a neck.
THAT was my guidance talking for sure!

In doing the ARV Feedback just now, I can see where I missed some matches in the judging – I may have given it a 3 instead of a 2. Since the winner #11 was an “A” logical contender, that may have tilted me towards betting #11 – as I did have a subtle feeling about her.
But that’s the way it goes sometimes, I did still get a nice payoff, and I am getting better and better at judging.

So this race was another success, contest-wise and learning-experience-wise – oh, and I also bet real money to win and place on #7, so did cash a nice ticket 😉

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 Posted by at 8:24 pm

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