In this race there were 3 “A” logical contenders, #1, 2 and 4. #1 and #4 were the high ARV Targ CRs, 5 and 4.5 respectively. #2 had only a 2.5.
#1 Eightyfiveinafifty was a very short price (3-to-5), and I knew he was an underlay, because he gets a lot of publicity – he had a very fast win in January and was on the Triple Crown trail. Such horses are always underlays, meaning they get bet more than their actual probability of winning warrants, so are logically bad bets, since their tote odds are too low.
So you would think I’d go for #4 Hurricane Ike, since he ranked highly both on logical and ARV, and his odds were better (7-to-2).
Somehow, though, I ended up picking #2 Raynick’s Jet (who also went off at 7-to-2).
Logically I liked him better than either #1 or #4, I think was the reason.
In the race #1 won easily, wire-to-wire.
#4 chased him around the track and finished 2nd.
#2 chased them both, then tired to finish 4th.
So, I overrode both intuitive (ARV choice) and logical (combined logical and intuitive, actually) to make a losing pick.
Not a big deal though, I am still in 3rd place, since the low payoffs meant no one moved up in the standings much.
The lesson learned is to allow both intuitive and logical input to my pick decision, and not just one or the other.
I am happy that I ARVed the WINNER!
You may not be able to see it too well because of my scribbling, but the matches are the goat head to the helmeted head (both have a point), the rapid azimuthal movement to the water spray, and the yellow squarish plants to the helmet again, in both color and shape.