Race 1

ARVer: Tom

I had #4 Hurricane Tiger on top, with Targ CR of 4.

He went off at 7-1, had the lead early and going into the stretch, then tired to finish 3rd.

The winner was a 10-1 shot. With 850 people, you can be sure quite a few of them had this horse, so we are already behind to the tune of $34.00 (the sum of the winner’s win and place prices).

I gave the winner a Targ CR of 2.5. I have noticed that I give many winners this particular Targ CR, usually because I have a feeling about the photosite, but cannot logically connect enough of my sketch to it to justify 3 or higher, which means you definitely think it’s the right site.

That was the case here – I did see a “wide open expanse – flat- goes on forever” which I AOLed as open ocean, but is certainly a match to the winning site below.

The other parts of my sketch seemed more of a match to other photosites, unfortunately.

Race 2

ARVer: Patsy

Patsy and I both judged her sketch, and came up with the same horse, #7 Alivie.

Alivie set the pace to the stretch, then tired to finish far back in 3rd at 6-1.

The 5-1 winner I had judged a Targ CR of 3 – but I had seen a lot of matches with her sketch in the photosites, ranking 3 of the other 6 photos higher.

So, we have no contest points after 2 races, though we did have two 3rds. It is likely someone had both winners, so we were now probably behind by $51.00. We were already going to need to hit longshots to have chance to win, and there is no guarantee there will be many (or any) the rest of the day.

Race 3

ARVer: Debra

Debra submitted a 9-page transcript for this race. I glanced over it (time was short), and came up with the same photosite she did, though I did not spell out Targ CRs.

Our ARV choice #8 Cagey Girl (at 8-1) had the lead until a few lengths to the wire, but was passed by two other horses, to finish third, beaten only a half-length for the win.

We saw only random matches to the 7-2 winner’s photosite – Debra gave it a 2.

Our points behind lengthened to likely $64.20. (They had technical problems displaying the leaderboard, until about the 8th race, so I couldn’t be sure of this, but with 850 people it is very likely someone had all 3.)

To summarize, all 3 of our picks showed very good speed, which is usually a very good predictor for winning US races, but all 3 tired to finish 3rd, all at nice odds (though not real longshots).

None of the winner’s sites were ranked very highly.