NHC3/BCBC1 Contest: Final Words

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Jul 292010
 

Here are some of the remarkable things that happened in this contest:

  • Tom’s login finished 4th of 860 people in the NHC contest – he got 1,400 NHC Tour Points. Tom currently stands 25th on the NHC Tour Leaderboard – and is very much in the hunt for the annual championship, with its $2 million bonus for winning the NHC finals in January.
  • TW Fendley finished only $28 and Marty only $40 short of qualifying for the NHC finals – in other words, one more solid longshot or 2 middle-priced horses away.
  • We scored contest points in all but 5 of the 14 races.
  • Our percentage of wins for the day ranged from 27% to 36% for both Contest Winning Outcome and Race Winner, depending on judge – FAR, FAR above the expected random 10% win percentage!
  • The return-on-investment (ROI) on win bets on the top Targ CR horse ranged from +2.80 to +3.42 depending on judge – meaning one would have QUADRUPLED one’s investment betting these to win. Put another way, $100 win bets on each top Targ CR horse in the 14 races would have produced around $4,000 PROFIT! This is also far above the expected random result of 18% loss.
  • If there were no odds cap – if the max win price was not 20-1 and place price 10-1 in the contest – we would have doubled our last race contest points – and TW and maybe Marty would have qualified for the NHC (depending on how many others would have also benefited).
  • Tom’s intent in these contests is always to pick the 3 longest shots of the day – he qualified for the NHC in April by doing this. In NHC3, he did predict 2 of the longest 3 shots, with the 6th longest shot not far behind the 3rd.

So, these contests were a wonderful fun experience, and produced valuable lessons learned in our quest to win handicapping championships and contests.

One final word from me: I am going to set my intent strong and clear for every contest I participate in from now on, and do the preparation like I did for this one, shifting my vibration to allow fun and exciting winning experiences. I know that is the key.

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 Posted by at 12:26 am
Jul 282010
 

Del Mar Race 7

This was the last race in the contest.

Joanie Sullivan ARVed and self-judged, and she (Targ CR 6), Tom (5) and Marty all agreed on the photosite associated with #10 Premier Pegasus.
#10 was the longest shot in the field, so there was no question about betting a higher odds horse this time 😉

In this race for young 2 year old non-winners race, #10, who was making his first start, broke well, settled behind the two leaders, came around to nearing the FRONT entering the stretch, got the LEAD AT THE EIGHTH POLE, began weaving on the track!, but INCHED AWAY TO WIN BY A BIG LENGTH!!!!!!!

YYYYYYAAAAAA HHHOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

My SCREAMING roused not only my daughter but even my nearly deaf dog to see if the world was coming to an end!

44-1!!!!

MAXIMAL CONTEST RETURN!!
Due to the odds cap in the contest, we got points at 20-1 to win, and 10-1 to place — $64.00 WORTH!

TW Fendley independently ARVed the same horse – so her ticket got the $64 too!

To top it ALL off, at the very last second, as the horses were loading into the gate (a very slight delay added about 30 seconds to this), Tom remenbered that he wanted to bet cash money – and he did just get 1 $5 win/place bet in, only his 2nd bet of the day (there wasn’t *time* for any others 😉
He wound up winning $300!
EXCELLENT!!!!

The 44-1 price is the longest priced winner EVER in PRECOG10 Horse Racing ARV history – in the 15 months since we started, no horse has paid more to win!

ARV
IS
FOR
LONGSHOTS
!!!!!!!

OMG, I just realized – the horse’s NAME – Premier PEGASUS – the same name as our Google Group for handicapping contests!
Too Much!


Joanie Sullivan's Winning Transcript - 1 of 2

Land; rocky; craggy; sweeping; majestic; panoramic; mountainous; black; sharp; hard; peaked; rolling; vast; big; airy; lots of space
1st flash of descriptors was for red manmade clothlike

Contest Winning Photosie and Race Winner #10 Premier Pegasus

Joanie Sullivan's Winning Transcript - 2 of 2

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 Posted by at 11:41 pm

NHC3/BCBC1 Contest: NHC Races 8-9, BCBC Races 8-10

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Jul 282010
 

Del Mar Race 4 – BCBC Race 8

Monica viewed and self-judged, and all 3 of us agreed #3 Goonie Goo Goo’s photosite was the best match.

#4 Nicole’s X S won – Monica judged it a 1, and Tom a 3, tied for 3rd.

So this one was just a miss, no big deal.


Del Mar Race 5 – NHC Race 8/BCBC Race 9

TW Fendley ARVed this race.

TW, Tom and Marty all agreed that the photosite associated with #12 Three Pointer was the best match.

#12 ran out, as #4 Self Defense won. Tom gave its photosite a 2 and TW a zero.

However, TW also ARVed a separate session for this race, for her own ticket – and she hit the place horse, #8 Bell Zone, a 20-1 shot who paid a juicy $19.40 to place!
#8 was not the official Contest Winning Outcome, since #4 paid more to win and place($23.60), but was still a nice increase in her contest total.


Del Mar Race 6 – NHC Race 9/BCBC Race 10

Tom ARVed for this race, and he and Marty agreed #7 Rosey De Megeve’s photosite was the best match.
However, Marty had to leaver early, and since his login needed a couple of longshots still to hope to qualify, he decided to bet #5 Spring Style, whose morning line was 20-1, as opposed to #7 at 10-1.
At post time the two horses’ odds were actually the reverse – #7 was 23-1 while #5 was 11-1 – but it made no difference, because both ran out, while #10 Lilly Fa Pootz won the race. Tom had given it a 3, tied for 3rd, in his judging.
TW Fendley’s horse on her ticket #9 also ran out.

This ended the BCBC contest; Tom and Marty both finished well out of contention for the 30 qualifying spots, Marty in 173rd and Tom in 227th of 300 people.

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 Posted by at 12:09 pm

NHC3/BCBC1 Contest: NHC Race 7 and BCBC Race 7

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Jul 272010
 

Saratoga Race 10

Marty Rosenblatt was the viewer for this race.
Marty self-judged #9 Prospective Union as his top choice (Targ CR 3.5); Tom had #9 and #6 Winning Touch tied for his top (Targ CR 4).

Tom initially had #6 as his selection in both contests – the photosite for #6 just felt better.
At the last minute, he decided to switch to #9, as its odds were much higher (44-1 vs. 9-1).

But then he got the feeling from his guidance to switch back!
So he hurriedly did – but only for the NHC, and not the BCBC (he discovered this later).

#6 won the race in a thrilling duel at 9-1- and paid $30.60 total win and place!
(My daughter wanted to know what all the screaming was about 😉

Marty’s pick #9 and TW Fendley’s pick #4 both ran out.

The contest totals were now such that Marty and TW needed 2 more longshots in the last 4 NHC races to hope to qualify for the NHC, while Tom needed 1 more longshot to expect significant NHC Tour Points.

In the BCBC, both Tom and Marty needed one longshot to hope to crack the top 30 and qualify for the next round.


Contest Winning Photosite and Race Winner #6 Winning Touch

Marty's WInning Transcript (as judged by Tom)

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 Posted by at 8:41 pm

NHC3/BCBC1 Contest: NHC Race 6 and BCBC Race 6

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Jul 272010
 

NHC Race 6 – Woodbine Race 10

Mic Moriarty viewed and judged, as did Marty and Tom. We each came up with different horses: #6, #5 and #3.

All 3 ran out, as longshot #10 won, whom we had all rated Targ CR of 2.
TW Fendley got points on her ticket though – her pick #7 finished 2nd, paying $6.00.

BCBC Race 6 – Del Mar Race 3

Viewer Michael Shank (Targ CR 4.5), Tom (6) and Marty all agreed on #6 Sarada.

Favorite #8 Laura Beasley was the winner, whom we all judged as Targ CR of 0.

Oh well, can’t win them all 😉

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 Posted by at 3:11 pm

NHC3/BCBC1 Contest: NHC Race 5/BCBC Race 5

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Jul 272010
 

Saratoga Race 9 – Coaching Club American Oaks

Viewer Sheila does not self-judge; Marty is primary judge.
Both Marty and Tom agreed on #6 Biofuel (both Targ CRs 5).

Odds-on favorite #7 Devil May Care won the race, paying $5.80 total to win and place; #6 did finish 2nd, but paid only $4.00.
So #7 was the Contest Winning Outcome, though we did cash in the contest.
TW Fendley’s pick ran out (this was her 2nd choice, after her top Targ CR scratched).

Tom had rated the Contest Outcome Winner a Targ CR of 4 (tied for 2nd) and Marty a 2.5 (3rd).
Tom also had a good feeling about #7’s photosite, but still decided that #6’s was a better match.

I am including the photosites of both winner and place horse here, so the reader can see how tough it is to judge sometimes 😉

Note that the difference in winner’s win/price total and place horse’s place price is only $1.80; and it appears to me that Shelia was getting hits from both photosites.

Lesson learned: be absolutely clear to all viewers what the intention is, beforehand.


Contest Winning Outcome and Race Winner #7 Devil May Care

Shelia's Transcript

Place Horse #6 Biofuel

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 Posted by at 2:36 pm

NHC3/BCBC1 Contest: BCBC Race 4

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Jul 272010
 

Saratoga Race 8

In this race viewer Lincoln and judges Tom and Marty all agreed that the photosite associated with #5 Cinco De Mayo Mio was the best match to the transcript.

We had another nice Contest WINNER!
#5 rallied but could not quite catch the odds-on favorite – but her $8.10 place price was bigger than the winner’s win and place prices combined, so she was the Contest Winning Outcome, satisfying our intent!

So, we held our own in the BCBC contest with this win.

We are doing really well at this point after 6 races!
The viewer has judge had 3 out of 4 contest winners (after a scratch; Mel did not self-judge), Marty had 3 of 5, and Tom had 3 of 6 judging Contest Wins.
Excellent work!


Contest and Race Winner #5 Cinco De Mayo Mio

Lincoln's Winning Transcript

blue; green; white; smooth; earthy; warm; sounds: gurgle; woosh; swish; outside movement. aol- like a washing machine outside. mechanical; confusion; something mixing.

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 Posted by at 2:01 pm

NHC3/BCBC1 Contest: NHC Race 4

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Jul 272010
 

Woodbine Race 8 – Nijinsky Stakes

This race was only in the NHC contest.

This one was a BIG WIN for us – viewer Loraine Connon self-judged the juicy 7-1 winner #4 Windward Islands’ photosite on top (Targ CR 4.5), and Tom agreed (5) in his judging – a big $22.00 to add to the contest points!

Tom’s NHC ticket now stood at $31.10 after 4 races, an excellent total considering the biggest total in the other 3 races was $15.60.

We did have a glitch with Marty’s ticket on this race.
He had judged a different photosite best, that of #1, Targ CR of 5, with #4 rated a close 2nd at 4.5.
His pick #1 turned out to be a late scratch, and we weren’t paying attention to late scratches, because it wasn’t yet close to post time. But the deadline for NHC picks was one minute before the published (approximate) post time, and the actual post time had been pushed back. We realized this at just one minute before the NHC deadline – unfortunately, when Marty tried to change his pick, it was too late.
Marty then was stuck with the post-time favorite #2, who ended up running 2nd at $2.90.

Still, Marty’s NHC ticket was at $23.10.
TW Fendley’s pick ran out; her ticket was now at $14.40.
We were all in the hunt for the NHC at this point.

Marty’s BCBC ticket stood at $11.10, while Tom’s had 0.
So the BCBC was already looking tough.

But we did get a big WINNER!!!!


Contest Winning Photosite and Race Winner #4 Windward Islands

Loraine's Winning Transcript

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 Posted by at 12:10 pm

NHC3/BCBC1 Contest: NHC Race 3/BCBC Race 3

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Jul 262010
 

Saratoga Race 7

Marty Rosenblatt was the primary judge for viewer Mel Riley for this race (no self-judging).

Marty judged the photosite associated with #8 Wine Police as the best match;
Tom disagreed, initially judging #4 best, then switching to #5 at the last minute.
Tom’s decisions were based in part on the low odds of #8, compared to higher odds for #4 and #5.

#8 won the race easily by 7 lengths – so we had another winner!
It was worth $11.10 on Marty’s ticket.
TW Fendley also gained points on her ticket, as her choice the favorite finished 2nd, worth $3.10.

Tom’s picks #4 and #5 both ran out of the money.
Tom had decided in judging that the feeling of a photosite was more important than literally seeing what the viewer described in the photosites, like a clock or flying.
Tom’s lesson learned from this was to pay more attention to what are clear visual hits, without trying to get wrapped around whether feelings match or not.


Mel Riley's Winning Transcript 1 of 2

Contest Winning Outcome and Race Winner #8 Wine Police

Mel Riley's Winning Transcript - 2 of 2

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 Posted by at 6:02 pm
Jul 262010
 

Saratoga Race 6

This race was only in the BCBC contest.

Viewer Joanie Sullivan got a direct hit on this photosite – she gave it the very high Targ CR of 6.
The associated horse #7 Spa City Fever won wire-wire easily, at 5-1.

Unfortunately, neither Tom nor Marty had the horse as his contest selection.
Tom decided that another photosite matched the sketch better (horse #3), mainly because it fit more of the viewer’s sketch and notes than the single direct hit the viewer got.
This was one of the only judgings Tom and Marty spent a lot of time on, with the end result being Marty also decided to change his selection from the direct hit horse #7.

So Marty’s lesson learned here was to stick with his original predictions no matter what anyone says 😉

This does bring up an interesting point: the Targ CR scale description for the value 6 reads
“Good correspondence with good analytical information (e.g. naming the function of the target), and relatively little incorrect information.”

Based on this, Tom also gave the winning photosite a 6, since viewing a clock and having a clock in the photosite certainly satisfies the first part of the definition of naming the target function; the problem was, it does not satisfy the 2nd part, of little incorrect information.

So a lesson learned here for Tom as judge is to pay more attention to direct hits from part of a sketch, and put less emphasis on the photosite matching all parts of a sketch.

Joanie did win some real cash on this race, so all was not lost 😉
We didn’t advance ourselves much in the contest though.

We were initially discouraged about this result, as you can imagine – the horse paid $19.40 total win and place, and missing a horse like that can easily be the difference between winning and losing in these contests.
But we recovered quickly, and were confident things would get better.


ViewerY's Winning Transcript - 1 of 2


Circular; spoked; black; pointy + sketch and aoled “clock”


Contest Winning Outcome and Race Winner #7 Spa City Fever


But also had land; biological; feel with brown and furry/fuzzy and shape like camel


ViewerY's Winning Transcript - 2 of 2

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 Posted by at 5:29 pm