Tom’s Experience with NHC2 and Derby Weekend

First, the contrasting situation:
I had no winners/place horses at all in the NHC2 Derby/Oaks, contest, finishing with the perfect score of $0 😉

Now, I know I created this for myself.
Basically I tried to do too much, and allowed it to overwhelm me, to the point where I had no good feeling about the races as they unfolded.
With the contest, including coordinating the ARV sessions, doing my logical handicapping, doing my own sessions for the PublicHandicapper,com contest, the webinar, assimilating all the data, watching the twitter feed from Churchill Downs and Brisnet for the latest happenings, talking with friends and relatives about Derby picks via phone, email and IM, making bets for them….
you get the picture 😉

An example of how I let this affect me is that I made 4 real-time decisions on which horse to bet at the last minute (contrary to my intent to have all my picks set the night before) – and every one of the decisions turned out to be wrong. If I had the winner logically (Arson Squad, my only “A” in the Alysheba), I switched to my ARV horse. When my subtle inner voice suggested I change to another horse (Mona De Momma in the Humana, Pickapocket in the 5th Sat.), I stuck with the ARV horses. When I decided at the last minute to switch from the ARV horse (Atta Boy Roy in the Churchill Downs) to a “C” (!) logical horse, it lost and the ARV choice won at 10-1.

It got so absurd I just ended up laughing at myself for how comical it was!

So anyway, it’s only one contest, there are plenty more opportunities to get Points.
I have already qualified using ARV, intuition and logic – I need not justify that to myself anymore.
I only need to be patient, relax, have fun – and delegate some of this work to the rest of the Pagasus ARVers 😉


PS. Oh, I forgot to mention – as far as cash bets went, I only had time to bet two races, to win/place, including the Derby, and those bets all lost.
(Well there was one good thing – I went to bet a 3rd race, guidance advised me not to bet, I didn’t, and the horse lost – so that was good.)

But I did win a bet!
I stumbled across a “head-to-head” proposition bet at bodog.com, where you get to bet which of two horses finishes ahead of the other in the Derby.
One of the matchups was Stately Victor vs. Line Of David.
SV being my top Derby pick, and LOD being a horse I thought had no chance at all logically (training poorly in the slop, speed burner in a race filled with speed), I jumped at the chance.
I bet my entire Super Bowl ARV winnings of $58 on this proposition, and it won – SV was 7th, and LOD as expected chased the early pace for a half-mile, stopped and finished 18th.
WINNER!!!!!!
I won $50!

2 comments

  1. Tom — we appreciate you! You and Marty create these wonderful opportunities for the rest of us to use our remote viewing skills, like little birds learning to fly.
    Saturday was an especially crazy day, with so many things happening at once, It was, after all, Derby Day! Yes, you should hand off whatever you can to the Pegasus group. We’re all in this together, after all. 🙂

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