Race 7
ARVer: Teresa
The contest skipped the 7th race at Gulfstream, so this is the 8th race from the track.
Rene was scheduled to do this race, but never responded to emails, so instead I used one of Teresa’s extra sessions.
There were 8 Outcomes, and Teresa had used 10, so I again decided to redo the judging with a different photoset.
My prediction was for #2, with #5 and then #6 right behind in Targ CR.
#2 went off at 7-1, not great odds, but I decided to let it stay at that, so Marty’s ticket and mine had the same horse.
Teresa had judged #5 on top, but he as only 7-2, too low odds to select.
None of these horses finished in the money, as the favorite #7 won.
Both Teresa and I had judged his site as our lowest Targ CRs, she a 0 and me a 2.
I do not mind missing a race like this, in which a favorite wins – they rarely make much difference in a contest like this.
I do sometimes wonder if our ARVing is somehow focusing on getting the best value from our predictions, in the sense of mainly selecting horses that go off at odds that are higher than their true chances of winning indicate.
If that is true, that is a gold mine. If one always only bet such horses, one is guaranteed to win money. I am going to do research on this subject.
Race 8
ARVer: Mic
For this race (9th at GP) Mic got strong hits on #7’s photosite, the favorite, and gave it a 5.5. I also judged his session, and gave it my highest rating, 5.
The other possibilities with high ratingswere (Mic, Tom Targ CRs) #5 (3.5, 3), #9 (3,3) and #6 (0,4).
#5 and #6 were much the longest odds, 26-1 and 30-1 respectively, and after 8 races we really needed all longshots to contend for the top 3 spots.
Looking at the sketches and photosites again, I settled on #5.
In the race, Mic’s horse #7 stalked the pace-setter #4, took over at the sixteenth pole (6 seconds from the finish), and looked to have the race won.
But ny eyes were on #5 – he saved ground on the rail on the turn in mid-pack, swung out in the stretch, rallied FURIOUSLY to pass all the rest, me SCREAMING myself hoarse at the TV- only to fall a head short at the wire, missing the win by about .02 seconds.
So we again came OH SO CLOSE to cashing on a big longshot!
Well, actually, we did cash – MIC HAD THE WINNER!!!!!
…and he as the selection on Marty’s ticket, so he got his first $6.80 for the Win and Place prices.
My ticket also advanced to the tune of $16.60, the Place price on #5, giving me a total of $38.60, good for around 110th place (of 825) on the leaderboard, which was now visible.
Here are Mic’s sketches, and the winning photosite.
Race 9
ARVer: Joanie
This race, the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GP 10th), was also a Derby List Triple Crown Contest race, so several people ARVed it, but I had time to consider only Joanie’s and my own.
Joanie ARVed #9 Lost Aptitude as a 5, and as he went off at 17-1, near the odds cap, I decided to let him ride as my prediction as well as Marty’s.
Joanie and I both judged my own session – she had 4-1 #8 on top with a 5 (I gave it only 2.5), and I had 35-1 #7 with a 4 (she gave it 0).
In the race, #8 Eskendereya won easily by 8 lengths, becoming a leading Kentucky Derby contender in the process.
#9 lead for half the race, quit suddenly and finished last; #7 was close for awhile, and also tired.
Joanie had judged the winner as a 2.
So, no winnings on this race.
Race 10
ARVer: Mel
By this time we were so far behind we could not finish in the top 3 even if we hit a “cap horse” (over the 201- Win and 10-1 Place limits), but we could still get year-long contest points by finisheing in the top 10%.
Marty and I judged Mel’s 2nd photosite for this race (GP race 11), because Elaine was unable to participate.
We both came up with the same photo this time (5 and 5 CRs), #8 at 8-1.
I looked for other matches at higher odds, with the help of Teresa and Joanie in the GoToMeeting Joanie was running for the DLTC Contest races. We decided on the photo for #11 Marty 3, Tom 3), who went off at 80-1 – that’s a big enough longshot 😉
Somehow, though, I lost track of the time to post, and by the time this was decided, it was too late to change my selection. So we had #8 on both our tickets.
#8 rallied from far back to finish 5th. My intended alternate pick tracked the leaders, then tired to finish 11th, so no harm done there.
But #14, who both Marty and me (tied) had ranked 2nd at 3.5, won the race at 9-1 – so THAT was anohter missed opportunity at nice odds!
Just for kicks, here is the winning photosite, and Mel’s sketches – I am sure you can see the matches 😉
I will summarize the contest in my final post shortly.